Case—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales

Structuring and integrating human knowledge in demand forecasting: a judgmental adjustment approach

Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context through extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, unpredictable events that do not appear in the historical data can make the forecasts obsolete. Since forecasters have a partial knowledge of t...

Models for Product Demand Forecasting with the Use of Judgmental Adjustments to Statistical Forecasts

Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting

Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an experts' rules into a quantitative model by regressing the experts' forecasts against the information that he used. Bootstrapping models apply an experts' rules consistently, and many studies have shown that decisions and predictions from bootstrapping models are similar to those from the experts. Three studies showed that bo...

Judgmental forecasting from graphs and from experience

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among experts’ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard d...